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The fourth quarter of the year (Q4), when there are pre-Christmas shopping and end-of-year sales, is the time when UK retailers, as elsewhere, expect a significant sales boost.
However, although Q4 figures are not due to be released until later in January, some retailers have already revealed a drop in like for like sales compared even with 2009, which was hardly an easy year in the aftermath of the 2008 global recession.
Among those retailers already reporting sales drops are Clinton Cards,Wholesale iPad 3, which said that sales had fallen by 2.1% in the last five weeks of the year and Mothercare, which posted a drop of 4% that particularly hit its out of town stores. HMV reported a 10% fall in December sales in the UK and 13.6% in Ireland and has issued a profit warning. Fashion and household goods retailer Next said it had lost £22 million in Christmas sales.
Many were attributing the lower figures to December snow and freezing conditions that seized up the UK's transport system for more than three weeks and while many of these have significant online shopping options the treacherous conditions affected even these because many distribution services were unable to guarantee pre-Christmas deliveries.
Sainsbury's, on the other hand, reported sales up 10.1% for the four weeks up to December 25, by comparison with the same period in 2009, and a significant annual increase in non-food sales, up 45% on the previous year.
The Q4 figures and further retail results may show that there has been some late-December cheer as consumers rushed to beat the January 4 VAT increase, from 17.5% to 20%.
But the figures already revealed above suggest that the end of year boost the retail sector traditionally relies on may not have quite materialised for most retailers and may have left them less well placed to face the difficult trading conditions expected in 2011.
Even if it should turn out that the retailers have managed to maintain sales in the short term, this only reveals one part of the picture. It does not indicate what profits that have been made, especially if they achieved these sales levels through heavy discounting,Wholesale iPhone 4s.
The most difficult issue facing retailers as the year unfolds will be maintaining their profit margins. Margins may have been propped up in December-January by the rush to beat the VAT increase, especially on the larger items like furniture and white goods. But the VAT rise is not the only issue facing retailers.
Although some items, such as such as children's clothing, books and food are VAT exempt, the Centre for Retail Research and online shopping group Kelkoo have warned that, while spending in the January sales may rise by approximately 1.6%, around £2.2 billion in sales may be lost once VAT and Government spending cuts begin to take effect and energy costs increase. Although some retailers have indicated that they will try to absorb the VAT on some items they won't be able to do that for long.
At the same time commodity prices on basics like cotton, wheat, rice, maize and sugar are expected to continue to rise thanks to global financial speculation and even retailers of VAT exempt items will face tough choices about how much of their higher costs they can absorb and how much they will eventually pass on to the consumer.
The tension between maintaining sales and margins will be difficult to manage once consumers, particularly public sector workers facing job cuts,Wholesale Cheap iPhone 5, find they have less money available for discretionary spending (such as jewellery, books, fashion items, holidays, cinema tickets, meals out) and become much more careful about what they buy and how.
So are there any protective measures the retail sector can take now to be better able to survive what is expected to be a difficult trading year?
Business rescue advisers say it is foolish to wait until a company is facing insolvency or struggling to meet ongoing costs, lending repayments and creditors before taking a thorough look at its business modeFor example, if you wear a coat in winter.
This is not about cost cutting,Buy Samsung Smartphone, which is just one tool in the turnaround armoury. It is about looking at the viability of the business given the squeeze that is expected to come on consumer spending all retailers must be prepared for.
Without a fundamental examination of the business, cost cutting (wages, premises, equipment etc) may not be sufficient for survival in current conditions.
Will the HMV decision to close 60 stores be enough? Can Waterstones survive the online competition from Amazon?
It may be that a high street retail presence is no longer sustainable and more fundamental and innovative solutions, such as moving the emphasis from the high street to online selling, may be the only way some retailers can survive.
Copyright (c) 2011 Alison Withers
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