Person's life is inevitable errors, can be forgiven, can not forgive is the same mistake again, especially those who paid a price in blood without warning error
(1) of title
Why is the Says no, perhaps because I think these did not matter, because it comes methods always involves
and, I think it is possible to simplify the problem easier to have some, if I want to insist on a certain principle or method of a class, then I think I will try to simplify them, so that is not easy to forget, but also in specific operations When that does not have to look at each book.
(2) valuation difficult?
may be hard, which I do not know, I want mainly to see what kind of work we put into the If the valuation is very easy, so I could because I just put View of the If interested,ralph lauren pas cher, you can be discussed separately. Of course, in many previous articles have also discussed these issues in part, if you are interested you can look at. This article is intended to describe the valuation of which focuses on the emergence of some
(3) pre-assumption reasoning
In fact, this process is the Here may have to solve many problems, I think some of the elements listed below can be simple. Note that here may be missing some important areas, the consequences of side to side to write the original will always be missing some of the more important things, will forgive me of.
First, there is likely to involve a No matter how the future looks bright, if it's If we take the first principle of investment is defined as (If you think that the most money, maybe I do not intend to learn this method, such as my logic is, get some. > A) in any case, the company must meet the minimum requirements for our stock-picking. For these can refer to the In this process, we seem to exclude most of the company, especially in the A-share market in the strict sense there are too many companies simply do not have listed. If we do this is do not know how to make money, then the number of those statements may be meaningless for us.
B) meet the minimum stock selection criteria in the case, the company must be good enough. Even if we could study hundreds to thousands of companies, but in fact can be regarded as excellent,polo lacoste, only a very small value, a reference for most companies probably do not have much of our existence meaning.
C) improve the investment of the Such as the Perhaps we can find 1 to 2 years in the business of making money is easy, but finding a can in the next 10 years will be able to make money much more difficult. If a company just because the market is in good condition in order to earn excess profits, then the market conditions there will always be a bad time. Even an industry as a whole is promising, but it also means more competitors enter the market.
D) of the (Refer to the First, it should be very clear to know how profitable the company can know what details should be concerned about.
F) ... ... other matters that may be missing.
... ... below before entering the body, just above the contents of the reference ... ... (4) some brief valuation logic, sometimes and has to determine which company can become potential targets, then, apart from a small number of areas outside the company (such as finance, insurance becomes a bit more complicated), there are many These logic itself how much intelligence do not need, just maybe needed a little bit of courage and responsibility.
First, there may have to make a reference value of the theoretical level, reference level of a reasonable return or discount rate is 10%, then the company A reasonable price is just 10 times earnings, book value happens to be 1.
A) [Company A] is the theory of state companies, from a risk point of view, even if we may be sure that its rate of return will remain at 10%, maybe we should buy a lower price-earnings ratio of some of [the company A], in fact there is no theory of state companies, who can guarantee how long it can maintain a 10% return on equity rate of return?
B) the Target Company and [Company A] for comparison, how much advantage? For this advantage is worth more than how much premium it? For example, assume that with 20 times earnings Mairu target company, then the target whether the company has three years to catch up with Company A's performance capabilities, and is guaranteed to catch up after the performance is still very strong. If not,lacoste pas cher, then we have another reason to pay the premium it?
C) we give the best company's book value is higher than 1 reason is that good companies can use to earn a dollar higher than 10% of net profit. If it can not achieve return on equity of 10% minimum standard, it must discount. The higher rate of return on net assets of the company, and the higher the uncertainty the future of companies, less dividends without any problems. On the contrary, it should be required to increase the dividend amount.
D) if a long-term average return on equity of 15%, then 2 times the book value may be more appropriate offer. Too high may mean greater risk, The best choice for operating long-term return on equity remains at 15% or more of the company, unless you can prove less than 15% of the current return on equity is just accounting tricks.
E) I do not know how Buffett and others calculate the valuation of long-term investors, and perhaps they are hiding under the bed to the calculation,polo ralph lauren, may not, or they are busy every day to eat mango pudding. I did not learn very complex formula, but this is no problem. If a process is too complicated, it may be accompanied by more errors. I would prefer to use the way the outcome of a few minutes, provided I do a pre-If all the future are identified, then perhaps the students can be valued, the problem is that all is uncertain, based on the assumption that the original is not identified under the conditions of any precise calculation, can only lead to the exact error.
F) If a company can only operate for 2 years, then in any case the cost should be recovered within two years; if we can only operate 5 years, then the cost must be recovered within five years. For a company of a business as well. Each company's duration, or the company to maintain high profitability is likely very short period, can not overestimate the duration of the business and the business growth potential. If something is not clear, then clear down until it anyway, even if that time might be slightly higher purchase price.
G) industry as a whole if a return on capital at a high level, and noted that the worst in the industry a lot a lot of companies can make money when I do not know when the turning point in this industry , but I can not let the industry know that this long-term status quo, could not be used as long-term profitability of current level of profitability assumptions. And vice versa.
H) If the oil price is $ 30, then perhaps I can at least know that this industry can be maintained approximately equal to the current income level, but if oil prices exceed $ 70 then I do not know. (Warren Buffett seems to say)
I) when the dry bulk index remained in 2500, I know the best companies in this industry can at least maintain the current profitability, the profitability of the maintenance was carried out for the assumption valuation, I think that there is no risk, but when the index rose to 75 point, I think I have no ability to make any judgments, I can only judge that I can earn money. Similarly, when copper when wandering in the 20000, I know what I do, but when it rose to 60,000 dollars, I know that after the change is not within the scope of my ability. Who can not judge things, gives five times the price-earnings ratio may also be a huge risk. If I can be confident that the future profitability of a long time unable to maintain the current level, then more than 10 times price-earnings ratio would be very worthwhile.
J) Normally, I do not know a company worth in the end, but I know how much the price if you buy at least not a loss, I do not want to rely on prediction of profit next year and the year after to make money, usually, These projections do not need to be able to know that some companies are clearly undervalued. They do not commit a major mistake, because it never missed a good company for the investment and bankruptcy, I would never expect to find all the good company, as long as I can find to rely on a few companies, enough to get considerable returns.
K) if I have a class asset management company, then the net profit for the company did not have much practical significance, such as I have more than 50 times earnings to buy over a company, it is important is whether I can grasp its actual condition of the assets, and is able to discount the price enough to buy these assets, these assets are at least some days later when the price can be sold, and not as a loss.
L) I am an investment for any of my expectations have not generated any revenue, much of the market to pick up some more, provided that the first does not guarantee a loss, or even if all the losses are within the scope of my bear. Of course, occasionally return to my amazing, I will not object.
M) if I know an industry can not disappear from China, and the industry as a whole can not be a prolonged recession, then, if the industry's most outstanding companies can not achieve a normal profit, then I might buy it .
N) for the same asset structure and profitability of the company, I will give priority to those higher economic goodwill of the company. Profitability for the same company, I would prefer a lower debt to those companies. For the same industry, I have given priority to choose the best company, even if the price may be slightly more expensive, anti-transformation for the performance of investments, and occasionally some of the worst companies may choose, provided that these companies will not be bankrupt.
O) I never worry about not buy good stocks, and in the past also proved this point, no company that I have to buy, wait, there will always be good company to staggering low Price placed in front of me.
P) Sometimes, a decision to buy may only take 10 minutes, provided that I have to think about all the thought again. As Buffett said, if dwell on this, it may become a higher probability of ornithologists. ~ ~ And then simplify simplify simplify -> based on these most basic logic, almost any company's valuation can generally be completed within 10 minutes. Finally, I reiterate, 相关的主题文章：

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