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the late 1970s the educated youth back to the city, the second wave of unemployment is the state-owned enterprise workers were laid off late nineties buy mont blanc, which coincides with the wave of unemployment twice the national economy is undergoing an adjustment period of rise and high-speed development period , coupled with national policies particularly inclined to take care of the negative impact is down to a minimum.
Being the protagonist of the third wave of unemployed workers and students is, if migrant workers working career as a cycle of ten to fifteen years, the first batch of migrant workers already lost their jobs, are now second, third the. But because they have roots in the home has room to leave the factory still has land under cultivation. They like the same groups of migratory birds disappeared in the town over, the idea is unencumbered.
Profit education industry in the pursuit of the policy under the guidance of the unplanned uncontrolled college enrollment, so students from favored black-bone chicken into the ground, just graduated from unemployment is not an isolated phenomenon, total unemployment in recent years, college students, according to said there are millions of people. News Network reported today 16 years old to 29 year olds, eleven one person in unemployment, the unemployment rate as high as 9%. However, most of them are only children and no burden, as well as the prime of capital, ability to support parents as well, eating up the old family will muddle along.
Coming protagonist of the fourth wave of unemployment will be white-collar (white is exotic word, what is all a matter of opinion by the white-collar workers, the author is difficult to make precise definitions). Nobody wanted to believe, but it would be cruel reality. The wave of the degree of harm involved in a wide range of large, we have to be careful ah!
White-collar workers are generally highly educated, university graduates before 1995, basically eat imperial grain into the unit. Now white-collar workers in the private unit is basically a college graduate after 1995 and from the payroll unit out of the professional and technical personnel (to pursue a successful career of volunteers and forced state-owned enterprises were laid off as the main body). Their current age limit at about 40 in the main age about thirty.
This means that the old white-collar workers are basically born around 1962, and 1962-1982 is the most massive population of China was born twenty years the baby boom,, at 0:00 on July 1, 1982 as the standard time for the Third National census, total population of 1,008,175 cheap lebron james shoes,288 people in China, with the second national census at 0:00 on July 1, 1964 of 694,581,759 compared to 18 years, a total increase of 313,593 , 529, an increase of 45.1% average annual increase of 17,421,863 people. With the same period the number of deaths, conservatively estimated to be born about twenty years 458 million people. These people are all into the employment period, the employment pressure and squeeze rare in the world, can be described as waves pushed before the waves before the waves die on the beach. College enrollment, especially after 1998, after the 2002 wave of overwhelming to students. Due to uneven economic development in China, college students toward the coastal tide. Physical tide had just receded, mental tide rise again, especially in coastal areas of China bosses, you really happy ah!
Few countries have forty years of age will be eliminated as an object, but the population structure of China's special economic liberalization of the system coupled with regional economic development is not balanced, does not believe that a few years later a boss to face the absolute prime of life, mental excess of inexpensive high-quality workers, but also great mercy even for the 45-year-old general white-collar workers over the age of 40 to retain their jobs. Look at most of the current recruitment advertising restrictions specified job-seekers aged 40 or 35 years of age, when the only emotion
Most of today's white-collar, grew up in a planned economy to provide low-cost school age, to enjoy the free economy after graduation feast, when they look down to the superior look the same age workers feel fortunate brothers and looking to squeeze Shidishimei recruitment burst, the availability of the knife has been found that you inadvertently give up.
Car today Xinxinbaopeng mortgage for white-collar workers who, ten years go?
China's aging is irreversible, after 2020, the population aged over 50 will be up to about six hundred million people (in 1970 China's population of about 800 million people, less the 50 years the population born before 1970 deaths About 200 million people roughly calculated), will account for more than 40% of the total population. October 22, 2005 Southern Metropolis Daily reported: 2030, China's aging population over the age of 60 is expected to increase to around 400 million by 2050 China's 60 years of age or older population over 65 will reach 450 million and 3.35 billion Nice Present, an old man of every three people. Twenty years due to China's future will remain the main manual labor in the form, yellow white and black poor relative to the body, especially the private sector for a long time in today's most high-intensity employment system the ability to work of workers over overdraft, will make 50 years of age and even younger workers can not engage in large or difficult jobs competent, now standards more in line with China's reality. Promote early marriage and motherhood in ancient China more children, more happiness, from an economic point of view is added as soon as the young labor force to bear the heavy agricultural labor. China's current labor force will be age targeted at 16-60 year-old age span, regardless of conditions is basically wishful thinking. Where to go to work after the age of 50, definitely will be placed in front of many of our heavy reality.
Only child policy and contemporary youth education and delayed marriage and childbearing are not even that sharp drop in the number of future labor force, in July 1990 for the fourth national census, the continent's population is 113,368 people, with the third national census at 0:00 on July 1, 1982 1,008,175,288 compared to people who, eight years, an increase of 125,507,213, an increase of 12.45%, the average annual increase of 15,688,402 people. November 1, 2000 for its fifth national census, the mainland population of 126,583 people. With the fourth national census at 0:00 on July 1 1990 to 113,368 million compared to ten years and four months in an increase of 13,215 million, an increase of 11.66%. Average annual increase of 1279 people. January 6, 2005, the Mainland of China XIII million small-citizens born in November 2000 with the 126 583 people compared to four years and three months, an increase of 3417 million, an average annual increase of 804 million people. . 23 years a net increase of population of about 300 million people, with the same period the number of deaths, births of about 400 million people, some experts predict 2040 will be about zero population growth in China, Guangdong and other coastal areas in 2003 appeared the , but a massive reduction in young people began to prelude. But if the Chinese labor reserves for the future of family planning policy in the current relax, because today's young couples of childbearing age that most of the iron rice bowl, four or five years old are facing the risk of unemployment later, once the current permit birth multiple births, not only immediately low standard of living today, and will not work basically adult children did not grow up, many families will fall into God the less no one to support in accordance with the tragic situation. China is now open birth and address the problem of aging population will make the problem even worse.
Especially today newborn sex ratio imbalance, and destined to produce 40 million after two decades of bachelor army, the bachelor will be mainly concentrated in rural and poor areas, and these people just a source of cheap labor in China. They will start their families in even the basic possibilities are not, the face of such despair in life, they become a troublemaker lumpenproletariat bachelor disorder to the country or even an honest fight hard labor to plant, will be a big problem . Recent media coverage of the party, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, hand-cut party backpack shocking crimes of violence, and in recent years, farmers in villages as a unit characterized by crime, gang crime, fled towns and villages of the emerging professional, part of the new generation of workers reflects the abnormal hatred revenge mentality, has outlined the growth in the urban fringe of the second generation of migrant workers in the small number of people from farmers to trace the evolution of displaced persons to the mob. According to statistics, only in this year's public security authorities struggle against Robbery and theft suspect captured in as high as about 44 million people. In today's increasingly geographically-based organized crime, professional development trend, from current to future violent crime mob violence, and perhaps only one step away. Once the training is not a temperature sufficient cheap labor, China's economic development will be down the momentum.
In neighboring Vietnam and India, then ten to fifteen years younger than the Chinese, the worldwide transfer of labor-intensive industries may be inevitable. Transfer from Europe to Japan and then moved to South Korea Southeast Asia to China, we have the ability to keep the title of the world's factory do this? We are proud of the world's first production of home appliances, toys, clothes, and brand how much core technology clutched in their hands? Especially the United States Japan and China Taiwan from a geopolitical point of view against the Chinese in recent years and vigorously support and investment in emerging markets such as India and Vietnam, but also to the transfer of industries with a clear political overtones. Chinese exports to the EU in 2004 about two million bicycles in Vietnam is about 1.5 million, 2005 EU and U.S. exports to China textile quotas and the need to continue into 2008, a large number of orders and investments to other countries, the EU will be 06 was introduced in the mechanical and electrical products almost demanding environmental standards, in turn a substantial increase in Chinese production costs, European and American developed SA8000 international labor protection standards although the objective will help improve China's treatment of migrant workers, but also directly affect the competitive advantage of Chinese enterprises . Unmatched in the world with cheap Chinese labor-intensive industries to maintain the situation up and then ten to fifteen years.
Recently launched the reform of institutions, perhaps they will make millions of laid-off professional and technical personnel. Who represents the bright future of the diploma title, and interest in the capital in front of vulnerable gentle sweeping. Unemployment is no longer a physical workers and illiteracy of the patent. Today some companies have already left for a monthly salary of five hundred yuan recruit fresh university graduates, migrant workers is simply not as good as more than physical.
Ten to fifteen years after two decades of depleted coastal areas of the baby boom demographic dividend, will have to pay for their huge unemployment insurance and pension insurance, October 22, 2005 Southern Metropolis Daily reported: World Bank The report predicts that in accordance with the current system model, from 2001 to 2075, China's basic old-age insurance, balance of payments deficit will reach 9.15 trillion yuan. Revenue expenditure increased, now the rich have money enough of the revenue and expenditure in coastal areas will become increasingly strained. Today a lot of money for the new generation of high consumption of zero borrowing against future savings habits will result in more than 40% of today's high savings rate plummeted (which in Japan and South Korea have been verified), based on high savings rate based on the rely on a large number of investment-led economic development model will be difficult (now the amount of annual investment in fixed assets accounted for 40% of GDP, far higher than other countries).
Now sweeping the world of Chinese-made global consumer economic model of export-oriented processing (dependence on foreign trade in 2005 January-August up to 80% of the competition) it is difficult to remain forever young and brilliant, but the key is that most of the amount and high-tech products export by foreign-funded enterprises to complete, Guangdong 2005 - With the July import and export value is over two hundred billion U.S. dollars Nike Free, of which foreign-funded enterprises is 140 billion, private companies are more than 200 million. If large-scale withdrawal of foreign capital for various reasons, especially in coastal areas of China's economy will be back soon. Understand this, the three super-national treatment to foreign-funded enterprises, the reform of RMB exchange rate is artificially low and difficult labor costs and other issues are not self evident. Low labor costs, the growing rich-poor divide and the lack of social security and other factors, so that over a billion people can not become a domestic consumer demand is the active force to promote economic growth, domestic consumption amounted to only 55% of GDP, The world average is about 75%. Aging population will lead to more consumer spending shrinking consumption. Foreign investment by relying on domestic exports, China's economic development today the second largest engine will be difficult as they are now vibrant, enthusiastic.
Popular in recent years, China's urban real estate so reported on the gorgeous coat, straightforward and direct stimulus to the expansion of many people's confidence in the near future, but time is getting, now, after ten to fifteen years housing a large number of nearly sixty years old died with the legacy of a large number of vacant homes, because many of these elderly people benefit from the planned economy of the welfare housing policy is basically a set of manpower, the number of homes left behind will be very large such as their grandchildren live in old houses do not mind, will be very happy to not like today's young people have a lot of hard work for room and existing homes to live. The stock market downturn, the state foreign exchange control of the gold market, low interest rates on bank deposits, making the premises of the ordinary people to become almost the only choice for investment purposes, according to statistics in November 2005 in Guangzhou every hundred inhabitants of the property is 119 units . But with the entry of foreign banks and the gradual lifting of various control measures, I believe not too long there will be a lot of money getting out from the real estate market to invest in other areas, as in previous years a lot of money from the stock market out of the same . In particular, the state will levy property tax, property owner must pay taxes regardless of whether the income, with many real estate investors, rental or woman may seize the meat and potatoes but not a hot potato.
Nineties influx of unemployed white-collar coastal housing will be forced to sell back to the Mainland took a lot of money, and now it's very different physical return of migrant workers, of course, many people rely on unemployment benefits will not be back and struggling to survive . September 2005 vacant housing area of the country 108 million square meters Air Max 2011 Men, and then accumulated by such a speed would be astronomical years. In recent years, the overheated real estate market has a lot of future ahead of consumer demand for personal loans issued by the National Bank of the amount of nearly 30 belstaff for sale,000 yuan, carrying hundreds of thousands of mortgage loans, some of China's large cities, the average debt rate than the United States. If the owners for various reasons there off for large-scale situation, the bank will be a serious debt crisis, the state will be forced to issue a large number of notes to fill the bank's bad debts, which will lead to serious inflation as well as the financial crisis. Performance of departments in the pursuit of one-sided pursuit of profits of the real estate agency and joint manipulation Babolat Aero Racquets, China's real estate market in the end how much reason and faith! Built on the basis of hundreds of millions of ultra-cheap labor, economic development can really be sustained property undefeated fairy tales?
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