Chopper: the first by the price after the Chinese entered the downward spiral
Events: chopper small depth of the financial, stocks, gold, the dollar investment seminar is scheduled for December 12 in Shanghai, is now open for registration. For more information: Chinese macro-economic change in the situation and the stock market opportunities
English Global Times reporter Wu Meng: The central economic conference the policy of the introduction, in order to expand domestic demand, especially to increase the focus on consumer demand, but in fact, the Chinese people's consumption rate level is still low in the world,Air Jordan Pas Cher, this holds no less than with the high prices on? how to reverse this situation?
chopper: boost domestic demand increased consumer demand for the direction is right, but China's problem is institutional and market out of line, the relationship between supply and demand mismatch, legislation and enforcement confusion. After all, is not suited to the economic base of the superstructure has been developed.
China's low consumption rate, had nothing to do with house prices in 2004 years ago, the residential housing market is being retained profit housing when city residents consumption rate is very low, therefore, historical perspective,Air Jordan, 20 years ago, mainly in the vast majority of residents did not affluent, and therefore can not afford to spend. so many years , the urban population slowly accumulated a little wealth, when we are afraid to spend. The main reason is that China's extremely low level of social security, city residents must save a little money, to do something to protect their U.S. accused China's savings rate bias high, the impact of global economic prosperity, which do not understand China's national conditions.
only three years of high prices is the real impact of the consumption, because consumption has led to lack of a large number of excess capacity, but also because of excess capacity led to a large number of entities overall economic recession, the impact of the employment so that China's economy went into a vicious circle. to get out of this vicious cycle, the only path is to expand domestic demand and increase consumption, it should be said not to enhance consumer demand, China is not lack of demand, China is the lack of consumer affordability.
October this year, China's foreign currency deposits reached 60 trillion yuan,Air Jordan 9 Source, equivalent to two years of GDP, of which deposits of urban and rural residents close to 24 trillion, compared to the the proportion of deposits in terms of lower than doubled in five years ago. In other words, the urban and rural residents can pay their relatively five years ago, also reduced nearly doubled in the development of the economy, affordability is decreasing, which in Europe other countries can not be imagined. The reason,Air Jordan Retro Spizikes, in addition to the low level of social security other than that many families spending too much for housing, I have conducted a survey, about 70% of white-collar workers accounted for the monthly family income of more than 50% , for total monthly family income of some 80% of what their ability to consume it?
solution now look more realistic, first marriage to a young white-collar housing into affordable housing co-ordination among the , the proportion of white-collar families for a month down to less than 30%, so the spending power of white-collar groups, at least doubling of the domestic demand is a real boost, of course, there are many ways, mainly to improve everyone's income level reduce the cost of living, only the expansion of the consumer market, only to revitalize the real economy.
English Global Times reporter Wu Meng: real estate as a pillar industry in the international financial crisis, the key to China's economy time, once again played an important role in stimulating economic recession and many experts predict will continue to implement preferential policies, the real estate industry will continue to implement preferential policies have any effect? ​​
chopper: I do not agree with you this view. the room to industry as a pillar industry in itself is a mistake, the real estate industry can not pull the economy out of the woods. real estate in this year's macro-economic role in only one, that is, money transfers. to print more money into the the house, derived from the asset bubble, the economic damage the operation of law and now the situation is very difficult to clean up.
from the central economic work will be the situation, despite repeated statements active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy In fact, the central bank will gradually recover mobility. This meeting is not possible to the original formulation for large changes, the key is to look at what he put new things, then something new is added to the formulation of the management of inflation expectations To manage inflation expectations, it is necessary recovery of mobility, no matter what time of nodes in the next year, the central bank will definitely have to recover mobility.
many experts do not understand China's policy change is the need for a transition, for example, interest rates and tax relief, will introduce a new approach, the first suite of residential and general relief are likely to continue, has been canceled for the second suite is actually a relief and concessions now used across a room, my analysis is not a reduction may continue, but will give first-time buyers a discount family from the management of inflation expectations in the spirit, into the next year, a decline in prices from the idle channel is now just do not know what the Chinese way of social choice burst housing bubble.
English Global Times reporter Wu Meng: It was noted that to strengthen the energy saving target responsibility system, strengthen the construction of key projects of energy saving, low-carbon economy to carry out pilot projects, efforts to control greenhouse gas emissions, strengthen ecological protection and environmental management, accelerate the construction of resource-saving and environment-friendly society, which with the opening of the Copenhagen climate conference just happens to coincide with the subject, tend to develop low-carbon economy on China's macro-economic impact?
chopper: China also to the high cost of low-carbon economy now, the world's largest carbon dioxide emissions in the ranking of countries, the United States first, China second, followed by Russia and Japan in China's power enterprises which, thermal power is still very important power generation in China's car is still not reached the Euro 3 emission standards, if force reduction, first to pay the cost of these two industries and since China has made commitments to the world, it would have a viable plan for the East electrical, wind technology, Shanghai Automotive, and so companies do a comprehensive policy to support, encourage new energy, environmental protection industry. In addition, we have to change the concept, try not to drive, switch to light rail are conditional.
English Global Times reporter Wu Meng: policies introduced at the meeting, there is one is to maintain appropriate growth of investment focus for the completion of projects under construction, strictly control new projects, which is the real estate industry, especially is the new real estate can be adversely affected?
chopper: These two policies are not the same thing this year,Air Jordan Chaussures drastic, investment growth is too fast,Air Jordan I Shanghai Automotive Group Co., the new project is very much on, there are many surplus items, causing a great deal of waste, increase large local government debt, therefore, to maintain moderate growth and this relationship and not much real estate.
English Global Times reporter Wu Meng: Dubai real estate bubble just appeared attracted many scholars at home and abroad attention,Air Jordan Retro 1, and predicted that Dubai real estate today, tomorrow will be the portrayal of China you views on this statement?
chopper: not the same as Dubai and China, but China's over-reliance on real estate is a warning. Dubai real estate bubble in China is much more serious than that, wait until the real estate transfer payment function of money disappeared, the housing bubble will burst and this is not the same point and Dubai.
English Global Times reporter Wu Meng: China's urbanization process the growing gap between urban and rural areas, has caused many social problems. The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out the need to resolve the transfer of qualified agricultural employment and the population gradually settled in the town as an important task of promoting urbanization, medium and small cities and relax urban household registration restrictions. This policy will be relaxed to some extent alleviate this problem, but can not solve it? In fact, many problems are caused because the outsiders can not afford housing. the ultimate solution, what measures?
chopper: the era of high prices, is a rich get richer the poor poorer constant age, the adjustment mechanism of social wealth has been an imbalance, but to resolve this conflict is a need for change, rather than solving a problem so simple account and now have What money can not buy?
English Global Times reporter Wu Meng: There are real estate experts, China's real estate bubble can not be generalized, there are only a foam-tier cities, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Guangzhou , Shenzhen, etc. If you continue to implement the preferential policies would be affected? will exacerbate the bubble?
chopper: incentives and the bubble has nothing to do. For example, the interest rate 30% discount as long as the policies set the boundaries, or Some first time home buyers can benefit. foam is derived from monetary policy, China's monetary system would be unreasonable, but also committed a common problem with junk currency, has cast a big mistake. For example, our M0 Only 3.57 trillion, while M2 is up to 54 trillion. is not enough money in circulation should not be taken to increase the M2 approach, but should try to make up the flow of M2 U.S. approach is a way of traveler's checks, checks that the currency, the flow of savings banks are up in China there is no such means of payment, savings in the bank is dead. movement not only of printed money, so they created a large spread of the M1. China is now the M1 balances of more than 20 trillion, Sooner or later something bad will happen.
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